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Proactively originated a research collaboration with a Research Fellow at the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, independently leading the financial research workstream within a broader interdisciplinary project.

 

Problem

 

Green bonds in EMDEs rely heavily on hard-currency financing, with associated risks driven by economic volatility and political factors. This results in a structural currency mismatch, as issuers’ liabilities are largely denominated in USD and EUR, while revenues are primarily earned in local currencies. Borrowing in hard currency enables access to a broader base of investors in developed markets, who are often reluctant to take on local currency risk. When local currencies depreciate, debt servicing costs increase in domestic terms, straining economic conditions and reinforcing the vicious cycle between dependence on hard currency borrowing and rising debt burdens.

 

Objective

 

I undertook this project to build a detailed understanding of currency risk in EMDE green bond issuance, aiming to identify trends and insights that could inform the development of more effective risk mitigation strategies that avoid exacerbating existing debt burdens.

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Approach

 

Research design

I independently led the financial component of the research, identifying the most material factors and prioritising areas of analysis with the greatest investment relevance. I applied both quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the drivers and implications of currency risk.

 

Analysis

The data-driven analysis covered over 700 bond issuances across issuer type, sector, and currency, pinpointing key patterns and points of differentiation. Beyond analysing data, this work required independent judgement to determine the most relevant relationships between variables and prioritise areas of analysis to explore further. This involved interpreting a large dataset in a way that was both rigorous and applicable to real-world investment contexts.

 

Framework

I translated the analysis into a structured, country-level assessment by developing my own practical framework to evaluate risk across EMDEs. The framework brought together:

• Currency exposure

• Issuer-level characteristics

• Fixed income market structure

• Economic conditions

• Political dynamics

 

This approach allowed me to turn fragmented information into clear decision-relevant insights. It also reinforced the importance of analysing financial markets critically, testing prevailing narratives against my own data, and carefully considering outliers where appropriate.

 

Result

 

This project resulted in the development of structured frameworks and written reports that translated complex analysis into clear, well-supported insights and conclusions. 

 

More importantly, the project strengthened my ability to navigate ambiguity independently, apply judgement to complex evidence, and question prevailing views by focusing on key risk drivers at the intersection of politics, macroeconomics and financial markets.

 

This work also provided me with an excellent opportunity to work in partnership within a broader interdisciplinary project. I independently led the financial research workstream, while my partner focused on the scientific and technical components. This experience highlighted my ability to work autonomously, while collaborating effectively across disciplines to deliver strong results.

 

***Due to confidentiality obligations under a non-disclosure agreement, I am unable to share any project analysis, reports, or conclusions.

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