Multi-Asset Portfolio Construction
A first-principles framework for asset allocation under geopolitical and economic uncertainty
I developed this portfolio as an independent project to test how geopolitical, economic, and financial market views can be translated into deliberate asset allocation choices. As an investment thesis designed for a hypothetical UK university endowment, it provides a comprehensive approach to long-term portfolio construction, supported by a multi-layered risk management framework. studied Politics and International Relations at the University of Cambridge, then I spent nearly two years at J.P. Morgan in wealth management, where I gained hands-on exposure to multi-asset portfolio construction.
Problem
The portfolio was constructed against the early January 2026 backdrop: persistent inflation, uncertain interest rate expectations, and a volatile geopolitical context. The core challenge was to build a portfolio that was aligned with a CPI + 4% return objective, annual spending needs, sustainability considerations, and a perpetual investment horizon. In addition, the portfolio needed to be resilient across a range of geopolitical and macroeconomic scenarios, including outcomes that differed significantly from prevailing market expectations at the time of portfolio construction.
Objective
To construct a multi-asset portfolio for a hypothetical £1 billion UK university endowment, translating geopolitical, economic and financial market views into a portfolio across public and private assets.
Approach
I approached the portfolio construction process with the view that financial markets rarely operate in a vacuum from geopolitical and economic dynamics. Both play a pivotal role in shaping risk premia, capital flows, valuations and asset performance.
Taking the investor profile as a departure point, I built the portfolio from first principles rather than relying on a standard endowment allocation model. I began by formulating a top-down geopolitical and economic view of the forces most likely to drive the investment environment, then used this analysis to make deliberate allocation decisions across fixed income, equities, and alternatives.
Each asset allocation decision was made through a structured framework: identifying its functions and benefits within the portfolio, as well as the potential risks with the corresponding risk management approach.
The iterative component of the process relied on conducting data-driven risk-return analysis in Excel, evaluating the weighted contribution of each asset to overall portfolio outcomes. This enabled me to refine the allocation and optimise asset weights to better align with the client profile and objectives. I then supplemented this evaluation with a qualitative assessment of how the portfolio would likely behave across base, bull and bear cases.'m a paragraph. Click here to add your own text and edit me. It's easy.
This process not only outlines the proposed asset allocation, but also the analysis, judgement, and decision-making underpinning the allocation weighting, cross-asset interactions and trade-offs required to meet the client’s objectives and constraints.
Result
The result was a comprehensive endowment-style investment case study, with a clear, evidence-based rationale for each allocation grounded in geopolitical and economic considerations.
At the same time, the project served a broader purpose: not only to construct a multi-asset portfolio for a hypothetical endowment client, but also to develop the structured decision-making framework behind it.
While the portfolio itself follows a standard endowment structure, the framework is differentiated by the consistent use of geopolitical and economic factors as core inputs into asset-allocation decisions. It is this translation of external uncertainty into specific portfolio choices that gives the project its first-principles character.
HERE is the first-principles decision-making framework, showing the analytical process behind portfolio construction.
***Detailed investment content of the portfolio is not included, as this type of financial material is not appropriate for public release, given the legal and regulatory considerations involved.